Good morning. Most startups don’t die from bad ideas, instead they die in the middle, stuck in the gap between product and proof. This week, we’re breaking down how to survive the brutal “Valley of Death” stage and emerge with a business that can actually scale.
Plus, you’ll discover why the wealthiest Americans are keeping the economy afloat, how AI could unlock trillions in enterprise value, and which startup just raised $60M building fraud tools for governments.
Oh, and today is National Fajita Day. Enjoy!
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BUSINESS PULSE
Economy: Consumer spending in the U.S. remains steady though anchored by high-income earners who now account for 50% of all consumption, up from 36% three decades ago.
What it means to you: Luxury markets and premium offerings may stay resilient, but if you serve broader audiences, brace for tighter spending and focus on lean growth.
Source: Reuters
AI: Morgan Stanley predicts that artificial intelligence could contribute up to $16 trillion to the S&P 500’s market value as businesses integrate AI across operations.
What it means to you: AI is more than a buzzword. It’s rapidly becoming a core economic engine. If you’re not mapping AI to performance gains, you’re already behind.
Source: TradingView
Startups: IVIX, an AI-driven fraud detection startup serving government agencies globally, raised $60 million in fresh funding, spotlighting investor interest in public-sector-oriented AI tools.
What it means to you: Investors are backing startups that scale AI to deliver real-world impact, even in notoriously slow-moving markets. Public sector entry points are now worth your attention.
Source: Wall Street Journal
DEATH CURVE
Startups Often Die Here

Welcome to the Valley of Death.
It’s the quiet killer of early-stage startups … and we’ve seen it firsthand. More than once.
The Valley shows up after the first product is live, but before the business really works. You’ve got an MVP, maybe a few customers, maybe a bit of cash. But the numbers don’t pencil out yet. Revenue isn’t predictable. The business model isn’t proven. And the burn rate is starting to matter.
We’ve been part of startups that made it through this stretch, and ones that didn’t.
The difference wasn’t just timing or luck. It was discipline.
What makes this phase so brutal?
Because your story is no longer theoretical.
You’re now accountable to your own expectations. Maybe investors. Maybe a team.
You’re trying to keep momentum alive without proof the business deserves it yet.
And the worst part? This stage can drag out longer than founders think. You don’t run out of energy, you run out of clarity. That’s when bad decisions start stacking up.
How we’ve seen teams survive it
After helping lead and advise several ventures through this stage, one truth keeps showing up: the founders who make it treat survival as a strategy, not an accident.
We call it the camel mindset and it beats the “unicorn” dream every time at this stage.
Camels travel light. They adapt. They store energy. They don’t bet the farm on untested assumptions. This is how you cross the valley.
Here’s what that actually looks like:
1. Ruthlessly manage cash.
Review every dollar. Weekly. Keep 3+ months runway in view at all times.
2. Prioritize signals, not noise.
Focus only on actions that create user feedback, real engagement, or early revenue.
3. Charge early (even if it’s messy).
We’ve worked with founders who waited for “polish.” The ones who charged pre-product lived longer.
4. Kill what’s not working.
We once paused an entire feature line after 30 days of dead engagement. Best decision we made that quarter.
5. Talk to users more than you pitch investors.
Customers fund your survival long before VCs do.
Final word
There’s no badge for surviving the Valley of Death. It’s quiet work. Often thankless. Sometimes lonely.
But we’ve seen what happens on the other side … and it’s worth it.
You come out leaner, sharper, and with a business that can actually scale. Not a dream. A machine.
So if you’re in the valley now: get focused, get honest, and keep going. Build for viability before visibility.
That’s how you make it. That’s how you earn the next chapter.
RIVET RECOMMENDS
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GROWTH PLAY OF THE WEEK
Double your speed by halving your goals.
Most founders try to grow by doing more: more goals, more features, more channels. But the fastest-growing teams we’ve worked with ruthlessly narrow focus. This week’s growth play is simple: cut your priorities in half. Pick 1 or 2 initiatives that directly drive revenue or traction. Deprioritize the rest. This forces clarity, improves execution, and reduces burn. You’ll move twice as fast and actually finish what matters.