Good morning, Riveters.
Most businesses don’t have a churn problem, they have a measurement problem. Let’s break down cohort retention and the one “aha moment” split you can run this week to keep more customers and stop buying churn.
Plus, you'll discover how to tighten onboarding so retention starts compounding instead of resetting every month. And the latest on the economy, AI, and startups, so you can make smarter calls as we head into 2026.
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BUSINESS PULSE
Economy
Inflation cooled again in November, below what economists had expected, with signs that the slowdown may be “technical” due to data gaps in the October CPI data. For operators, the point is simple: pricing pressure could be easing, but not disappearing. If your costs are still climbing (labor, software, shipping), don’t assume demand will “absorb it” in 2026. This is a window to tighten your unit economics and revisit pricing with a clear value story.
What this means to you: If inflation keeps cooling, rate pressure can ease, which helps financing and consumer sentiment. Build plans that work even if demand stays selective.
Source: Reuters
AI
OpenAI shipped a revamped ChatGPT Images experience with improvements to how the model follows instructions and handles common image-edit workflows (think “take this asset and make clean variations” vs “generate a random picture.”) The company calls out that they re-ran earlier examples to benchmark progress, while noting the system is still imperfect.
What this means to you: Treat image generation like a speed tool for marketing and product teams: faster creative iterations, more A/B variants, quicker mockups. But, always keep a human review step for brand, accuracy, and compliance before anything ships.
Source: OpenAI
Startups
Customer engagement startup MoEngage announced an additional $180M in Series F funding, bringing the round to $280M total (after a $100M tranche in November). The company highlights this as a liquidity event for employees and investors, which is a useful signal: late-stage rounds are increasingly being structured to offer partial liquidity, not just “more runway.”
What this means to you: If you’re raising, expect tougher questions on capital efficiency, plus more investor interest in structured secondaries. If you’re hiring, liquidity events can be a retention lever that doesn’t require an IPO.
Source: MoEngage
CHURN SIGNALS
Retention metrics lie. Cohorts don’t.
Most “churn problems” are measurement problems. Not because the math is wrong. Because the question is wrong.
When someone says, “Our retention is 92%,” your first response should be: 92% of who? New customers? Long-time customers? The ones who love you? The ones who never really started?
Blending everyone together creates a comforting average, and a business that still leaks. Cohort retention is the uncomfortable upgrade. It forces honesty.
What cohort retention really does
A cohort is just a group that started at the same time.
“Customers who signed up in March.”
“Users who began a trial the week of Black Friday.”
Track what percent of that group is still active after Week 1, Week 4, Month 3.
Simple. Also brutal. Because this answers the question, “Are we getting better at keeping the people we just earned?”
If you changed onboarding in April, cohorts tell you if the April group retained better than March. If you launch a new paid channel, cohorts tell you if you've just acquired a group of customers who were going to abandon you.
That’s not a churn problem, that’s a targeting problem.
Different fix. Different meeting.
The hidden assumption that wrecks retention work
Most teams measure “active” as “logged in.”
That’s like measuring restaurant loyalty by counting who looked at the menu online.
Define “active” as value. For a B2B tool, it might be:
Created a report.
Invited a teammate.
Shipped a project.
Ran a payroll.
Processed a certain amount of orders.
If a customer does none of that, they are not “retained.” They are visiting.
Cohorts make the timeline visible. And timelines can tell stories.
Big drop from Day 0 to Day 1? You likely sold a promise the product didn’t keep. Or the first step is too hard.
Drop after Week 1? People got a quick win, then ran out of reasons to return. Drop after Month 2?
Your value might not compound. Or the price starts to sting once the honeymoon ends.
A churn-reduction play to run this week
You need a spreadsheet, not a data team.
Pick a cohort anchor: signup week or first purchase month.
Pick one “value action” that proves intent.
Build two cohorts: people who did that action in the first 7 days vs people who didn’t.
Then compare Week 4 retention.
If the gap is large, you just found your “aha moment.”
Now your job is not “reduce churn.”
Your job is: get more people to that moment faster. Start by asking:
Are we losing customers, or are we acquiring the wrong ones?
Is churn happening after they understand the product, or before they get it?
Do we have one clear path to value, or ten confusing options?
Cohort retention won’t flatter you. That’s why it works.
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GROWTH PLAY OF THE WEEK
Build two cohorts and redesign the onboarding process to increase the number of customers in the winning group.
Most churn is an activation gap you can measure. Pick one action that proves real value in your product (first invoice sent, first integration deployed, first teammate invited, first report scheduled), then split new customers into two cohorts: those who complete it within 7 days and those who don’t. If Week 4 retention is meaningfully higher for the first group, you’ve found your leverage point. Now tighten the path: default templates, fewer steps, a checklist that ends at that action, and one nudge at the exact stall point (not a drip campaign that nags everyone). Run this weekly until the gap closes and your retention curve starts to flatten.