Good morning, Riveters.
If you think the holiday rush is only about last-minute deals, think again. The real winners are months deep in planning, while everyone else is still designing banner ads.
This issue breaks down why the holiday wave is built long before November and December, plus how to ride it like a pro.
Then, discover how AI-driven shopping, cash-tight founders, and vendor performance are rewriting what “holiday readiness” means. We cover the latest signals in the economy, AI, and startup world, then wrap with a growth play you can actually use this week.
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BUSINESS PULSE
Economy
Economists are cautiously optimistic about U.S. growth heading into 2026. Output remains resilient, driven by strong consumer spending and tech investment. Job growth is slowing, and inflation remains sticky. This mix could delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, extending tighter borrowing conditions longer than expected.
What this means to you: Expect demand to stay healthy, but financing to stay expensive. Keep cash efficient if you’re a founder, focus on recurring revenue, and negotiate better terms before rates shift again.
Source: Reuters
AI
AI continues to vacuum up venture dollars. A new report from CB Insights shows AI startups have captured 51% of total global VC funding so far in 2025, and the U.S. accounts for ~85% of that funding.
What this means to you: If you’re building or evaluating an AI-adjacent product or service, this level of capital flow signals both opportunity and competition. Ask: do you truly differentiate, and do you have a path to scale before the valuation tide shifts?
Source: The Economic Times
Startups
This week saw a handful of mega-rounds highlight where VCs are placing big bets. For example, Crusoe Energy Systems raised ~$1.38 billion for AI-data-center infrastructure and several other firms raised more than $200 million.
What this means to you: Even if you’re not in “mega-round” territory, this investor attention is deepening in infrastructure, automation, and “second-order” AI plays (not just chatbots). For startups in B2B/SaaS, make sure your business fundamentals are clean (unit economics, growth, margin) before chasing large rounds.
Source: Crunchbase News
CLOSE CALL
Holiday Readiness 2025: The 8-Week Sprint
If your business waits until November to prep for the holidays, you’re already behind.
The truth? The holiday season isn’t a sprint anymore. It’s a long-distance race where those who plan in July are cashing in by December. Yet most founders still think “holiday prep” means tweaking ad copy and slapping 20% off on the homepage. That mindset is costing them margin, customers, and sanity.
Holiday readiness is no longer just a marketing exercise. It’s an operations, finance, and data strategy disguised as festive cheer.
Look at the numbers: Adobe expects online holiday sales to hit over $250 billion this year. Cyber Week alone will break $43 billion. At the same time, consumers are more cautious and deal-driven. That means every click, cart, and conversion will come down to how well you planned your logistics, pricing, and payments.
Let’s zoom in.
Retail Dive’s analysis shows supplier performance can make or break your season. Shorter delivery windows and mobile-first buyers leave zero room for delay. If your top vendors miss a shipment, your “holiday sale” becomes a clearance event in January. Smart founders are already stress-testing vendors with on-time and fill-rate scorecards—because you can’t market your way out of stockouts.
Cash flow is another blind spot. Pursuit Lending found small businesses that secure financing early see 30% higher holiday ROI than those scrambling in Q4. Why? Because they can invest in faster shipping, pop-up inventory, and flexible payments without cutting into margins.
And here’s where it gets interesting. AI and “shopping agents” are rewriting the buyer journey. Salesforce predicts hundreds of billions in purchases will be influenced by AI helpers. Think of AI agents as digital concierges that shortlist gifts, compare prices, and check inventory faster than any human shopper. The question isn’t whether you use AI in your marketing; it’s whether your business is visible and accurate when those agents go looking.
So what does this mean for you?
Plan in waves, not weekends. Break the season into three pushes: early deals, Cyber 5, and the final five days. Each one needs its own offer, budget, and logistics plan.
Audit your supply web. A weak supplier can ruin your margin. Track their performance now.
Lock your working capital. Secure credit lines before the rush. Liquidity beats creativity when orders flood in.
Rethink your customer promise. Speed matters, but so does honesty. Communicate cutoffs clearly and own your delivery timelines.
The holiday season rewards foresight. So ask yourself: are you reacting to December—or are you engineering it?
RIVET RECOMMENDS
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GROWTH PLAY OF THE WEEK
10X Growth, Without 10X Headcount
As your startup moves from “get some traction” to “grow with efficiency,” the key pivot is shifting from acquiring customers to extracting value per customer and automating the value delivery. It’s not enough to just add more accounts, you must design your model so that each new customer adds more profit margin with less incremental cost. That means identifying the smallest replicable “unit” of your business (product + onboarding + support) and optimizing it just like you would a funnel. Once that unit is tuned, you can multiply confidently. Without that clarity, growth becomes messy, capital-intensive and unsustainable. Use this week to map your value unit, measure its cost, and find one leaky spot you can fix now so you can scale later.